Virtual Water Trades

There exists a vital relationship between water scarcity and food insecurity; the potential strain on this relationship is aggravated by projected changes in water resources under changing climates and populations. As a result, concern over the increased risk of famine is hardly surprising. A solid understanding of the ‘virtual water’ concept can offer an optimistic alternative to combat these fears and dismiss a pessimism that permeates media coverage.

Virtual water and trade. In this context, water-scarce countries ‘import’ virtual water by avoiding the extensive amounts of water required for agricultural production, and instead importing this food. This is important for countries in arid areas and those lacking sustainable groundwater resources, or a combination of both. Hoekstra and Hung (2005) make the link between agricultural imports and the international market, arguing that countries can, to an extent, free themselves from the changing conditions of their local climate by way of these virtual trades.

A useful introduction into crop-derived virtual water trades is offered in a study by Zeitoun et al. (2009) who focus on trades in the Nile Basin between 1998 and 2004. A striking figure in their paper is the discrepancy between intra-basin ‘imports’ between Nile Basin states and ‘imports’ by these states from the rest of the world – the former makes up for 905 Mm³/yr., whilst the latter makes up for 39,230 Mm³/yr. Egypt has a particularly high reliance on these ‘imports’ from the rest of the world, accounting for over 75% of the total 39,230 Mm³/yr. virtual water ‘imports’ from Nile Basin states. As a result of the majority of ‘imports’ and ‘exports’ coming by way of ‘green’ water i.e. rainfed agriculture, there isn’t a significant impact on water resource demand in the basin. However, at the same time, it does little in the way of offering a solution to a deficit of 28,000 Mm³/yr. in trade between the states and the rest of the world.

I am reluctant to discuss in detail the trade of virtual water within the Nile Basin, and especially the high dependency of Egypt, given that another blog has already offered some really good information on this. What I do want to focus on for the rest of this post, however, is the case of Libya and the Great Man-Made River Project which is mentioned in the same post of the blog mentioned above.

The Great Man-Made River Project (GMMR)

A self-sufficient food policy in Libya has resulted in the over-exploitation of groundwater resources, especially given that most of these resources are non-renewable (Salem 2007). The GMMR, then, was seen as an option to help counteract this situation.

The GMMR is a network of underground pipes which serve to supply high-quality water across Libya by pumping from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System. The project was intended to reduce the dependency of northern Libya on desalination plants and diminishing rain-fed aquifers and to provide irrigation for large-scale food production (Wheida and Verhoeven 2007a); the $25 billion costs associated with groundwater extraction are reportedly 10% of desalination, making the GMMR a particularly attractive solution to the growing problems at first glance. However, despite the implementation of this project, Libya continues to face water deficits due to unsustainable levels of extraction, a growing population and the impacts of climate change, threatening the security of food production across the country.

Figure 1. The Great Man-Made River. (Source: AmusingPlanet)

As such, scholars have discussed the need to rethink Libyan water management strategies in order to sustain a good standard of living for the country’s inhabitants. One suggestion is that of virtual water, considering the claim that a ‘high-degree of self-sufficiency based on locally grown food’ can never be achieved (Wheida and Verhoeven 2007b). 

    Table 1. Food Supply in Libya (Wheida and Verhoeven 2007b)

Given that it can take up to 4,000 litres of water to produce 1kg of wheat and 800 litres to produce 1kg of apples or bananas, it would seem appropriate for Libya to continue to target self-sufficiency in this area and pursue alternative options in regard to wheat, namely importing it. Combining the import of water-intensive crops like wheat with desalination plants could therefore serve as the most economically sound method to ensure food security, whilst reducing dependency on a single source. With predictions estimating the depletion of the GMMR in aslittle as 60 years, this becomes even more necessary.

Nonetheless, it is imperative that governments carefully consider integrating virtual water trade in their economic and social policies so as to avoid the dangers of high prices due to potential external shocks. At the same time, depending solely on the virtual water trade concept isn’t something I would suggest as its place in international discussions is perhaps best suited to helping raise awareness of its role in our lives, especially in places we rarely consider.